About a one percent gain...
About a 2 percent gain in government bonds and 2.4 percent in currencies.
2.4 percent loss in equities and a .9% loss in copper.
Also add another 15% in copper at 2.93.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
short copper again
Luckly I avoided at 9 cent move by covering. short copper at 2.76 (let's say december) at 15%.
Monday, August 3, 2009
accounting losses
We'll start from the May 28 positions
Total losses
Currencies:
-GBPUSD .3 * (1.44/1.394 - 1) = 97bps (open)
-EURUSD .6 * (1.69/1.625 -1) = 240 bps (open)
NZD 140 basis points
Equities:
-SPY .8 * (100/97.5 - 1) = 200 bps (open)
Commodities:
Copper .25 * (267/239 -1) = 292 bps
Silver .2 * (1 - (13.90/14.93)) = 137 bps
Gains:
Germand bonds 282 bps (from 3.65 to 3.31)
oil 180 bps (71.25/62)
short treasuries 160 basis points (from 3.48-3.68)
All together 5 percent loss. (A 5% loss in two months isn't that high).
New positions (close german goverment bond short (no gain no loss 3.31 to 3.34)/ long treasuries 10 year Treasuries at 3.64 at 120%) (Bernanke may print money again and Treasuries may rally so we need a larger position to hedge the dollar longs )
Tommorrow we short copper.
The RALLY WILL END SOON. I regret betting against it too early. Finally the Darwinian flush of the Bears is done! The breakouts of the Euro, pound, equities, copper show a blowoff high much like oil at $147. The former two had very strong resistances at 1.43 and 1.65 respectively. It feels like euphoria, much like the top of the NASDAQ bubble.
positions
- SPY 80
US 10 year Treasury 120
USD AUD 40
-EURUSD 30
-GBPUSD 60
- gold 20
Total losses
Currencies:
-GBPUSD .3 * (1.44/1.394 - 1) = 97bps (open)
-EURUSD .6 * (1.69/1.625 -1) = 240 bps (open)
NZD 140 basis points
Equities:
-SPY .8 * (100/97.5 - 1) = 200 bps (open)
Commodities:
Copper .25 * (267/239 -1) = 292 bps
Silver .2 * (1 - (13.90/14.93)) = 137 bps
Gains:
Germand bonds 282 bps (from 3.65 to 3.31)
oil 180 bps (71.25/62)
short treasuries 160 basis points (from 3.48-3.68)
All together 5 percent loss. (A 5% loss in two months isn't that high).
New positions (close german goverment bond short (no gain no loss 3.31 to 3.34)/ long treasuries 10 year Treasuries at 3.64 at 120%) (Bernanke may print money again and Treasuries may rally so we need a larger position to hedge the dollar longs )
Tommorrow we short copper.
The RALLY WILL END SOON. I regret betting against it too early. Finally the Darwinian flush of the Bears is done! The breakouts of the Euro, pound, equities, copper show a blowoff high much like oil at $147. The former two had very strong resistances at 1.43 and 1.65 respectively. It feels like euphoria, much like the top of the NASDAQ bubble.
positions
- SPY 80
US 10 year Treasury 120
USD AUD 40
-EURUSD 30
-GBPUSD 60
- gold 20
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