Friday, February 27, 2009

Current positions

Currencies:

USD/EUR
USD/CHF
SEK/EUR
NOK/EUR
AUD/EUR
CAD/EUR

Debt:
Japanese 5-10 steepener
Short: 10 year US Treasury
Long: 10 year German Bund

Equity:
Long:
Merck
Petrobras
Short:
Wyeth (think the merger will break)
(Thinking about shorting GDX)
Longing oil equity does not have an attractive risk/return... I'll wait for OIH to support at $70.
I'll short US, European, a Japanese equities if there is a large rally. Risk/reward on short side no longer compelling.

Commodities:
Short:
USO (I think the negative roll yield because of the steep contango will force some retail investors out of their positions)
Long:
Gold (thinking about switching to a short position, as I am expecting it to rally, I am long gold despite being bearish on the longer term. I am sticking to my deflation guns, and eventually in the low velocity environment, gold will be seen as a deadweight)