The disaster of "consensus investing"

Early March Saw Largest Increase In Short Interest In 9 Months

I didn't perfectly time the "bear market rally," but I was bearish before I started the "real-time experiment" (basically what George Soros did in the Alchemy of Finance without any money)... but Zero Hedge points out that there was a large increase in short positions between 3/2/09 and 3/13/09. Remember, it is a bad time to short when most people are doing it and when everyone is already bearish. I suppose metagame and game theory considerations are important when investing/trading/speculating. I did not want to be net-short during early March because it seems a rally would be a realistic possibility.

Right now, I suppose there is enough bullish sentiment and enough people disagreeing with my views to allow me to be net-short in the US equity markets with a moderate risk/reward profile.

Remember, you always have to question yourself and attempt to falsify your own views.