turned bullish at the wrong time

Close Treasury shorts at 3.16... the worse than expected jobs report was enough to break the 3.30 resistance. I also thought long fixed-income was quite crowded too and deflation was ALREADY expected. I am starting to get bearish on Treasuries, but the downward pressure in yields could run for a week. I think 2.90-3.00 percent are fair considering the amount of yield volatility these instruments have.

I'll get long during earning season... and then short, depending on how much the dollar rallies, that will determine the size and aggressiveness of the 4th Quarter short.

Add 20 at 1.161 USD/AUD



So we are very long the dollar.

Edit: add to short SPY at 103 at 35%; my hypothesis is that we need a bear trap at lure more shorts who think it will go to 90 or 80... then we go long during earnings season, and then short and a dollar rally would be at our back.

short december oil at 70 at 20

German government bonds at 60

USD/AUD 60
EURUSD 60
GBPUSD 60

SPY short 35
Gold short 20
Copper short 30
oil short 20

Edit 10/3/09... take back S&P short... we will go short after earnings season. I didn't know earnings season starts October 7th on wednesday. That is not enough time to allow bearish sentiment to develope.