New trades

Deflation theme:

add:


20% NAV short copper
20% nav long silver

50% NAV short GBP/USD

I knew 870 on SPY was overbought, but I didn't say anything about it. Since trading is zero-sum I didn't declare any positions, although I knew there would probably (like an 80% chance of a sell-off on Monday), I didn't expect it to be this large. I do not know if this is the resumption of the bear market or whether the rally would continue. It seems to me that the gap from the high 200 day EMA and the value of the SPY would mean the rally has some more steam.

One has to trade as little as possible since trading is zero-sum. Of course, from an SPY of 870, I knew it had to fall. One was waiting for it to go even higher before declaring a short position. I thought 890 would be a good time, since a sell-off might happen before it reached 900.

Edit: 4/26/09

I meant to say overbought on a long-term and very short-term time frames. On a medium term, 870 S&P 500 it seems that the rall would continue.

Again, I do not like trading. Trade minimally... A speculator (unless you are a quant) should engage in a minimum amount of trading. That doesn't mean buy and just forget about it.