5/4/09

Close sterling short. Lost a lot. (2.75%) (1.495/1.455). Expecting a breakout.

close gold position (lost well, I longed it at $940 and it is at $892), keeping silver position, and remove SPY short (all of it). Let 5% PBR and 10% XLP and 5% XLY ride.

Currencies:

Shorting gold 25% NAV. ($892).

April:
Was up about 3.2% on currencies (0.024 from SEK/eur x 25 + 0.045 x .25 CAD/EUR + .04 x .2 AUD/EUR + 0.55 x .3 SEK/JPY - .5 X 0.018)

GBP ended month at $1.482

Lost nothing from silver due to silver price increase in commodities and didn't lose any on copper until start of the month. Lost slightly on gold too. Copper lost about (3%) in may.

Equities were neutral.




Portfolio (lightly levered and "low risk": do not have enough conviction yet):
+ XLP 10
+ XLY 5
+ PBR 5

- Gold 25 (short term trade)
+ Silver 20

+ German government bonds 50 (currency hedged)
- Japanese government bonds 40 (currency hedged)

- EUR/SEK 25
- EUR/AUD 5
- EUR/CAD 5



Planned portfolio using deflation thesis (4.75:1 leverage, 15 positions) in June:

Equities (80%):
- SPY 40
- IWM 20
- DAX index 20

Commodities (40%):
+ Silver 20
- Copper 20
(maybe oil if contango is still very large)

Fixed-income (230%):
+ 10 year Treasury 150
+ 10 year German Government Bonds 80

Currencies (125%):
- GBP/JPY 40
- GBP/USD 10
(50)
- EUR/JPY 25
- EUR/USD 5
(30)
- NZD/JPY 15
+ USD/NZD 5
(20)
- EUR/SEK 25