Currency 5/28/09

initiate

+USD/NZD 30 1.6040
-GBP/USD 30 1.5965
-EUR/USD 30 1.3984

I'll close the yen usd position at a small profit of .5%.

I hate all of the fundamentals on NZD, GBP, and EUR. Also they are technically overbought as they are both their 20, 50, and 200 day EMAs and have RSI of around 30 for NZD, and GBP has an RSI of about 77. EUR hit 70 on the RSI. These trades are doubles, not a home run trade; so closing them will require some defense. If the yen weakens to 99 yen per dollar (100 yen seems to be the resistance for USD/JPY), the trades will be closed and the respective currencies would be shorted against yen. SPY short is a home run trade. I'll wait for it to hit the 200 day EMA and have an RSI of at least 64. When the S&P 500 feel in April of 2002, it did cross the 200 day EMA, but it hit an RSI of 65. It didn't hit 70.

(I am not going to count the GBP/JPY against me(I knew it would go wrong when I made it as it was at 149 before, and it fell to 144.2; it didn't seem like a good risk/reward then and I acknowledge whipsaw). I saw Clarium's portfolio, and I saw they had a large currency position. I felt that I wasn't being too aggressive when I called it. The SLV position would be a big winner (about a 5% gain), although this would be moderately offset with the German bond losses (about 2%) and the pound dollar (about 1.6% and .9) , and the loss in the gold short (.7%) and copper (.7%). I am not counting it as it just stupid; I did it because I wasn't in positive territory. Let's say that I am down 2.3% now since I lost 4% in march gained 3.2% in april and lost 1.6% in may.)

Approxiamate portfolio:

- SPY 30
+ PBR 5

+ Silver 20

+ German government bond 10 year 70
+ US Treasuries 10 year 70

- EUR/SEK 30
- EUR/AUD 5
- EUR/USD 30
+ NZD/USD 30
- GBP/USD 30