Starting with a clean slate

I want to end the experiment and start over...

I even knew that the GBPJPY would go against me in the short term lost about 4.5% on that, and an additional two percent. I should do a more rigourous technical analysis. Close yen positions just to reduce the pain. Losing makes it harder to gain loses since you have to be more defensive.

I want to reset at zero now. Starting at March was a bad time to start this. Maybe now would be a better time. The short treasury/long dollar bets were badly timed.

Regarding my views in the economy (long story short): there are no more shoes to drop, the financial sector is stabilized. Stocks are "fairly priced" at a "headline P/E" of about 15. I still think going short has a better risk/reward for going long, since it is unlikely that asset price inflation would continue so the p/e wouldn't rise much. Increased profit margins would increase share prices, but I do not see that happening. Since during bear markets, rallies do not have enough energy to break the 200 day EMA resistance. That would be a good time to increase short positions especially if the relative strength index (14 day) is at least 65. An equity sell off would simply occur not because it is raining shoes, but merely because of the epiphany that it is an L-shaped recession not a V or U shaped recovery.

I expect the deflation trade to resume later, but everyone is talking about being bearish on Treasuries, not German Bunds. However, they sold off too. I guess other European nations selling bonds put upward pressure on their yields in addition to government deficits around the world.

Current opinions:

GBP/USD - bearish (USD is moderately oversold and mainstream opinion is against the dollar now/ pound is moderately overbought)

German government bonds: moderately bullish

oil: slightly bearish

copper: slightly bearish

US equity market: highly bearish

Treasuries: neutral short term and long term